Iran's strategic risk in the Strait of Hormuz
The article addresses the escalating tension in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting from Iran's use of the strait as a strategic pressure tool at both regional and global levels. Iran considers control over the strait to be its final leverage remaining amid declining military and regional capabilities. It explains that closing the strait or imposing fees on passing ships could significantly harm the Iranian economy, especially since about one-fifth of global oil trade passes through it. The article predicts that using this tool could lead to international military escalation and the development of strategic alternatives for oil transportation. Furthermore, excessive exploitation of this leverage may turn into a strategic loss and weaken the survival of the Iranian regime, as Tehran will face increasing international pressures aimed at protecting freedom of navigation and global security.
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