Iran's shift from influence to militarization
The article points to escalating conflicts within the structure of the Iranian regime, especially with the appointment of Mohsen Rezaei as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, replacing Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. This move represents an attempt to rebalance influence between military and security institutions within the system. The appointment, which comes amidst tensions with Washington over the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing negotiations, reflects a struggle between the hardline military faction and other leaderships over control of national security and strategic decision-making. Analyses confirm that these divisions do not indicate an imminent fall of the regime but rather an internal rivalry over interests and influence, with security and military dominance continuing to rise at the expense of political reforms. A democratic transition in the foreseeable future is considered unlikely.
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