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Russia has lowered its oil production estimates for the current year to the lowest level in 17 years, due to a temporary decline in output resulting from reduced refinery operations and maintenance activities. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister expects production to rebound after maintenance is completed and refinery operations stabilize, emphasizing that the current decline is not related to long-term policies but rather to the current operational circumstances of the refineries. Additionally, a draft of the government’s forecast indicates a reduction in oil production estimates from 2026 to 2029 by between 16 and 20 million tons. The report also highlights that oil supply fluctuations face challenges such as decreased exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the impact of geopolitical tensions, with OPEC+ continuing to play a key role in the market.
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