Wall Street Midterm Bets

Wall Street favors a stable political and economic environment with clear policies, rather than any particular party. Historical data show that the S&P 500 gained an average of about 12.4% in the 12 months following midterm elections, rising to 17.5% since 1980. The index also posted an average return of 15% in the year following elections since 1950, while its average gain over the subsequent six months was 14.1% since 1970, compared with 5.7% over similar periods in non-election years. These gains are not guaranteed, as interest rates, inflation, corporate earnings, and economic growth all influence market trends.

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