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2026-11-04T18:33:04.000Z

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Russia stronger after war

Russia stronger after war

Mohammad Ali Al-Shehhi believes that Russia’s retention of Ukrainian territory could amount to a battlefield gain and the beginning of victory if it is accepted by the West. But that would not guarantee that Russia emerges from the war stronger: consolidating its gains and rebuilding its forces and resources would come at a heavy cost. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated Russian military spending in 2025 at about $190 billion, or 7.5% of GDP. Meanwhile, the central bank kept interest rates at 14% and forecast growth of between 0.5% and 1% in 2026—indicators of economic strain alongside continued activity in some sectors. Moscow has adapted militarily and expanded its use of drones, but relies on Chinese components in some models. The war has also deepened its trade ties with Beijing. The assessment does not suggest that sanctions or economic pressure mean an imminent collapse or an end to the fighting. The bottom line is that the ability to keep fighting does not necessarily mean the ability to emerge from the war stronger.

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