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Donald Trump’s defeat in the midterm elections and the Democrats’ control of both chambers of Congress would set three foreign-policy calculations in motion, while leaving him room to maneuver. Iran is watching for the possibility of a settlement or escalation, as contacts resume over an interim understanding on the Strait of Hormuz. Israel fears a decline in U.S. aid and security cooperation, while Benjamin Netanyahu faces domestic and international pressure. Ukraine hopes Trump’s political weakness will ease the pressure on it, but remains dependent on U.S. weapons and funding and fears Russia will exploit his waning influence to make gains on the battlefield.
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