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Standard & Poor's has confirmed Iraq's sovereign credit rating at "B-/B," with a negative outlook due to the risks of conflict in the Middle East, including disruptions to trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the potential damage to infrastructure. Oil production is expected to decline to around 2.9 million barrels per day by 2026, a decrease of nearly 28% from pre-war levels, putting pressure on Iraq's financial revenues and contributing to an expected 15% contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) during the year.
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