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The European Council on Foreign Relations predicts that the conflict between the United States and Iran may escalate in Yemen rather than in the Gulf, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and oil infrastructure intensify. This threatens the four-year-old ceasefire and adds to the challenges facing global oil supplies. Saudi Arabia faces a choice between reaching a new agreement with the Houthis and Iran to prevent military escalation or allowing military escalation to occur, which could reignite the Yemen war and expand the scope of the conflict. Such escalation risks the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and higher energy and shipping costs for Europe. The European analysis urges Europeans to support mediations to prevent the emergence of new fronts and further escalation.
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