Will US succeed in encircling Iran
The article reviews the efforts of the United States and Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz amidst their ongoing conflict, focusing on the extent to which each side has succeeded in closing or opening the strait, which is a vital strategic point for global energy. While Washington has managed to establish a limited maritime corridor and provide protection for some oil tankers, maritime traffic remains approximately 90% below pre-war levels, and full restoration of normal flows has not been achieved. On its part, Iran has not succeeded in entirely closing the strait, but it has made passage through it highly risky and costly, thereby impacting global oil exports. The article also discusses strategic alternatives, such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which reduces dependence on the strait, as well as ongoing threats from the Houthis, the role of Red Sea ports, and the complex military and political circumstances that could lead to various scenarios, including stalemate, a provisional agreement, or a broader military conflict—each carrying significant risks of triggering a global energy and maritime security crisis.
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