Lebanese-Israeli Framework Deal Risks

The Lebanese-Israeli Framework Agreement, signed under the auspices of the United States, is considered one of the most significant political and security shifts in modern Lebanese history. Its aim is to regulate a cessation of military activities and to reshape the security and political reality between the two countries. It stipulates that the decision on sovereignty and military matters remains exclusively in the hands of the Lebanese state, with the necessity of disarming non-state armed groups—an sensitive clause that requires a unified political will and international support. The agreement also grants the Lebanese Army a central role in protecting the country and links reconstruction efforts to the transparent implementation of reforms. There is also the potential for restoring sovereignty and the withdrawal of Israeli forces if the agreement is fully implemented, despite the risks posed by political gridlock and regional tensions.

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