Morgan Stanley predicts global oil oversupply

Morgan Stanley has cut its oil price forecast for the second time in two weeks, citing faster-than-expected resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, along with rising U.S. supplies and weak Chinese demand, which increase the risk of a market surplus. The bank expects the average price of Brent crude to be $75 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters, with the outlook lowered to $70 by the end of 2027, when the market is also projected to face another surplus. Currently, oil is experiencing its largest quarterly loss since the COVID-19 pandemic, as futures deteriorate and a significant number of oil tankers are leaving the Gulf, reflecting a shift in oil flows following a temporary peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

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