Middle East Shifts Toward Mutual Deterrence

After more than three months of the US and Israeli war against Iran without a clear decisive victory, the Middle East is moving towards achieving a deterrence balance rather than American dominance, despite ongoing regional tensions and conflicts. The war, which began on February 28, 2026, and lasted about 40 days, demonstrated that American influence is no longer absolute, and Iran’s ability to maintain its influence despite military pressures has become evident. As a result, regional countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on the United States and expand their security partnerships, amid ongoing challenges that could lead to fragile calm or potential escalation.

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