Goldman Upgrades Gas Price Forecast Amid Middle East Tensions

Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for European gas prices in 2026 due to the sluggish recovery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Gulf region, hampered by tensions in the Middle East, especially via the Strait of Hormuz. The bank expects European gas storage levels to remain low, reaching about 67% of capacity by October, with prices continuing to rise to around 60 euros per megawatt-hour during the third and fourth quarters, driven by the threat of supply shortages. If Gulf exports gradually resume by 2027, prices could exceed 100 euros for the same volume, but a faster recovery might push them down toward 40 euros. The bank remains pessimistic about gas prices in 2028 and 2029, with low forecasts around 16 euros, assuming full shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, amid risks including increased American exports and the replacement of coal with renewable energy in Asia.

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