UNIFIL Post-December 31 Overview

The article discusses the future of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) following Security Council Resolution 2790, which announced that its mandate extension until December 31, 2026, will be final, with a process of "organized and safe reduction and withdrawal" to begin within a year. The core argument is that ending the UNIFIL mission does not eliminate the legal obligations of Resolution 1701, which established the force; rather, it changes the enforcement mechanism and shifts the responsibility of asserting sovereignty onto the Lebanese state. There is also a need for alternative mechanisms to ensure the continued implementation of its provisions, especially amidst the security and political developments in the region. The article further explores future options, such as rebranding or establishing new international forces, or supporting Lebanon through limited, medium, or large international presence, emphasizing the importance of monitoring violations and reporting to ensure the ongoing enforcement of Resolution 1701. It highlights that the withdrawal of UNIFIL might lead to a decline in monitoring violations' effectiveness and underscores the necessity of a gradual transition from peacekeeping to monitoring and enforcement to safeguard Lebanese sovereignty. It stresses that the primary conditions for actual sovereignty include the deployment of the Lebanese army and a monopoly on weapons, warning that the continued presence of Hezbollah and illegal weapons complicates this transition and threatens stability in the south.

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