Global Trade Shifting Toward Fragmentation

An analysis of the evolution of global trade shows that the trading system has entered a new phase characterized by fragmentation and restrictions following a decade of rapid expansion in the first decade of the 21st century. Between 2001 and 2008, trade experienced unprecedented growth, driven by China's accession, the expansion of value chains, and decreasing shipping costs, which pushed the trade-to-GDP ratio to around 60%. However, the 2008 financial crisis led to a slowdown in growth, the end of rapid expansion, and the beginning of a "slowdown of globalization." This was followed by a rise in protectionist measures from 2010 onward, with the number of trade-restrictive measures doubling and the value of affected imports reaching levels not seen in the past 15 years. Today, policies focus on reducing dependence on major economies and shifting exchanges toward trusted partners, resulting in increased costs and reduced efficiency. This occurs amid a decline in global trade flows and a shrinking growth margin, with clear impacts on economic growth and prices in emerging economies.

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