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Risks of the AI profit surge
The article analyzed by Goldman Sachs experts regarding the profit bubble in the technology market, where they confirmed that the real danger does not lie in the rising stock valuations but in the sustainability of profits growth in the technology sector. They pointed out that the valuation premium on the top five American companies has nearly disappeared, and the price-to-earnings ratios for similar companies in the US market are approaching those of their counterparts in other sectors. This differs from the previous dot-com bubble, which experienced record highs followed by sharp declines. The report also noted that current profits are strong, but valuations in some sectors, such as software, are declining, even as earnings expectations for the sector continue to grow. There has been a significant increase in capital expenditures by cloud computing companies since the launch of ChatGPT, leading to impacts on liquidity and investment, opening up investment opportunities in older economic sectors like industry and energy, and a reduction in the correlation of stock performance across markets.
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