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Halima Croft, head of commodity research at RBC Capital Markets, said some Asian refineries are paying around $170 a barrel because of higher shipping and insurance costs linked to disruption to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Sultan Al Jaber noted that shipping and logistics now account for more than 30% of the cost per barrel, compared with less than 5% before the disruption. Croft expects an announcement that the war has ended to trigger a rapid drop in trading prices. But the return of regular commercial shipping and a reduction in actual costs will take time, particularly while oil transport remains difficult and the passage of petroleum products and liquefied natural gas remains limited. Rebuilding reserves could support prices: around one billion barrels have been drawn from global inventories, while China has reduced its need for imports by around 4 to 5 million barrels a day by relying on its reserves.
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