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Washington is expanding pressure on Iran beyond restricting oil exports to targeting financing and trade channels and intermediaries. Its “Economic Outcast” campaign has covered more than 60 entities, individuals, and vessels, and sectors including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. “Economic strangulation” aims to reduce Tehran’s ability to collect revenue, secure financing, and access markets—not merely to block inbound and outbound traffic, as a blockade does. Kpler estimates that a naval blockade could deprive Iran of $3 billion to $6 billion a month in oil revenue, while Iran’s losses from energy restrictions since 2012 are estimated at around $540 billion. But declining exports and worsening economic indicators do not guarantee political change. They could instead push Tehran to expand its evasion networks and parallel economy. The strategy’s success ultimately depends on whether it can turn those losses into political concessions.
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