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Calm Exit Doctrine and Future of Democracy
The current movements between Iran and the United States point toward a redefinition of the regional security strategy. Iran is moving toward peaceful negotiations through mediators such as Oman to establish security arrangements focused on the countries bordering the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to reduce reliance on direct military presence and eliminate American intervention pretexts. In response, Washington seeks to decrease its direct presence in the region and adopt a balance management approach through regional proxies and capabilities. Additionally, it aims to reshape its relations with Israel to be more rooted in manufacturing and technological partnerships rather than direct financial dependence. This indicates a strategic shift toward exerting regional influence indirectly and at lower costs, with an emphasis on competing with China and easing burdens in the Middle East. Such a transformation impacts maritime security, waterway stability, and arms policies. It is likely to leave the region in a more fluid state characterized by superficial agreements, with diminished prospects for democratic change, favoring stability aligned with the interests of major powers.
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