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Independent voters could hurt Republicans’ chances in the midterm elections, as early-voting data and polls suggest this group is leaning toward Democrats, who are also leading in early turnout. In the 25 states tracked by Catalyst, voters not registered with either major party make up more than a quarter of the electorate—about two percentage points more than at the same point in 2022. Democrats led Republicans among independents in four CNN polls, by margins ranging from 8 points in Maine to 29 points in Kansas. These trends may be especially significant in North Carolina, where early-voting independents include higher shares of young, Black, and Latino voters—groups that generally lean Democratic—even though many independents have yet to make up their minds.
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