Damascus's Return to Lebanon Explored

The new study from the Center for Oriental Studies discusses the possibility of Syria's role returning to Lebanon, especially in light of the rapidly evolving regional developments. It presents four potential scenarios ranging from security coordination and safeguarding Lebanon's stability to broader roles related to the future of the region. The researcher believes that Lebanon serves as a critical space to test the nature of this role, particularly given the need for Syrian involvement in security, economic, and social issues. It is emphasized that restoring the previous model of dominance is currently impossible, and that cooperation and coordination are the most realistic options. The most likely scenario at present is an indirect security role focused on border control and preventing smuggling, with the possibility of political or security intervention if Lebanese institutions are threatened. Meanwhile, the prospects for comprehensive intervention or full control are considered less probable at this time.

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