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Constitutional law and political science professor Habib Stati Zine El-Dine said that Russia’s veto of the US draft resolution at the Security Council on October 30, 2026, despite its support by 11 members, reflects a shift in the debate over Western Sahara—from managing the conflict to the nature of a solution and the future of MINURSO. He added that the veto does not erase Morocco’s diplomatic gains, including Resolution 2797 of 2025, which established the autonomy initiative as the basis for negotiations. He explained that failure to renew the mission’s mandate would not automatically mean the end of the UN’s involvement in the issue or MINURSO’s withdrawal from the field. He outlined three possible scenarios: a technical extension accompanied by a review of the mission’s mandate; the end of its field presence while UN monitoring continues; or a shift in focus toward bilateral and regional initiatives. He stressed the importance of monitoring developments and preventing escalation, noting that upholding the ceasefire remains essential to preserving peace and stability.
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