Knesset Elections Netanyahu's Risk

The article addresses the Israeli parliamentary elections scheduled for October 27, which will determine the members of the Knesset, totaling 120 seats. Analyses indicate that these elections are not merely a vote to change the government but serve as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu's era and the future of the Israeli right-wing. There is also an expectation that the opposition forces will make progress, as their voting indicators suggest a positioning better than Likud. The article highlights that Israeli society is increasingly leaning towards the right and right-wing extremism, especially after the events of October 7. The ongoing security and political challenges faced by Netanyahu—including the war in Gaza and regional issues—continue to shape the landscape. The anticipated change in government is unlikely to bring drastic shifts in policy toward the Palestinians, as both the opposition and the current government share similar positions, such as rejecting the establishment of a Palestinian state and affirming Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem and the West Bank. However, there remains a preference for managing the conflict differently. The study underscores that forming a broad unity government between figures like Netanyahu and Eisenkot could help reduce escalation and realign the Gaza and regional files, while maintaining core principles in Israel’s policy toward the Palestinians. The most damaging scenario for Palestinians is the continuation of Netanyahu’s rule or a hardline right-wing government, which could lead to increased rigidity in security and settlement policies. Conversely, Eisenkot’s involvement suggests a move toward a more institutionalized approach to the conflict, though without substantial changes to the fundamental constants.

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