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Goldman Sachs has confirmed that the global diesel shortage poses a significant threat to fuel supplies, as worldwide refining activity has declined to its lowest seasonal level since the pandemic. This decline is due to refinery shutdowns in Russia and the Middle East, as well as reduced refining in China, which has led to a reduction in production by about 6.5 million barrels per day compared to last year. This shortage has resulted in decreased supply, with European diesel futures prices reaching their highest level in three months, and diesel exports down 35% year-on-year. Nevertheless, refineries in America and Africa have increased their operational capacities by approximately 30% to compensate for part of the shortfall. The bank advised investors to purchase positions in the European diesel spread between December 2026 and March 2027 as a hedge against geopolitical risks.
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