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Commodity markets have experienced a significant rise since the beginning of the year, achieving gains of 26%, supported by supply shortages, geopolitical risks, and climate fluctuations. This has led to their outperforming stock indices such as the S&P 500, which saw a 21% increase. Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, led the gains, rising by 8.2% and 12% respectively in August, driven by expectations of U.S. monetary policy and a weakening dollar. Additionally, central banks increased their demand for gold, with their purchases during the second quarter expanding fivefold. Industrial metals also saw a 1.4% rise, with copper climbing nearly 2%, due to mining restrictions in Chile and Peru and declining ore grades. Meanwhile, energy markets declined due to disruptions in the Middle East, although they still represented the largest contributor to the market gains since the start of the year. Agricultural commodities increased by 3.2%, amid growing weather and geopolitical risks, especially with the potential occurrence of El Niño and its impacts on agricultural production. Overall, the current wave of increases relies on synchronized structural factors such as supply constraints, stockpiling, climate changes, and political tensions, making the rise broader and more sustainable.
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