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Barclays predicts UK rate hikes in November and February
Barclays Bank expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in November and February 2027, following the hold at 3.75% in September. This anticipates increased inflation risks due to the conflict in the Middle East and rising energy prices. The committee forecasts that inflation will exceed 4% in the first quarter of 2027, driven by higher energy costs and the effects of geopolitical tensions, with the possibility of a "second-round" inflationary impact if prices remain elevated. Governor Andrew Bailey noted that ongoing conflict may require a more tightening monetary policy, although most committee members voted to keep rates steady, while some called for an immediate rate hike to counter rising inflation risks.
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