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US raises 2026 oil price forecast
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its oil price forecasts for 2026, expecting the average Brent crude price to reach around $98 per barrel, representing an increase of nearly 8% from previous estimates. This rise is attributed to declining global inventories, persistent supply shortages, and military tensions that have impacted oil movement through the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, forecasts indicate that U.S. diesel prices will continue to stay above $6 per gallon throughout October, before gradually decreasing to approximately $4.50 by 2027. On the supply front, Gulf production is expected to recover following the resumption of oil flows through alternative export routes and the restart of Saudi Arabia's shipments via the East-West pipeline. It is anticipated that disruptions will decrease from 4.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels by the first quarter of 2027, potentially causing Brent’s average price to fall to $84 in 2027.
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