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Midterms Threaten Stocks
Markets have yet to fully price in the possibility that Democrats will take control of both chambers of Congress. JPMorgan analysts expect a Democratic victory to send the S&P 500 down about 0.5% in Wednesday’s trading, while Republicans retaining control could lift stocks by as much as 1%. Democratic gains could add pressure to AI stocks, as tax incentives for data centers may be restricted, though a nationwide ban on building them is considered unlikely. Defense and bank stocks could also suffer from concerns over spending and regulatory restrictions, while healthcare stocks may benefit. Meanwhile, a possible military escalation against Iran could drive up oil prices and dash hopes for the usual post-midterm stock rally.
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