9 Hrs
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US Iran Escalate or Hold
The U.S.-Iranian standoff swings between talk of a deal and military escalation. Washington is seeking guarantees before making concessions, while Tehran is betting on prolonging negotiations and holding on to leverage, including the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions, and the nuclear and ballistic missile issues. Limited strikes heighten the risk of a wider confrontation through miscalculation and the convergence of Israeli interests, Gulf security, and international shipping concerns. Regional mediation, meanwhile, remains a channel for narrowing differences. The article argues that the region is suspended between settlement and war, with each side betting the other will back down despite both understanding the cost of confrontation.
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