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The Hormuz Agreement Collapses: Why President Trump Lacks Good Options
The Hormuz Agreement is facing a severe crisis less than a month after its signing, as military confrontations have resumed and shipping traffic through the strait has fallen to its lowest levels in weeks. The main dispute between the United States and Iran concerns the interpretation of the agreement's terms, especially regarding guarantees for "safe passage" of vessels. This has led to a drop in the number of ships transiting the strait from 36 per day a week ago to just 11, while oil prices have risen by 20%, reaching around $87 per barrel. The options available to the Trump administration are limited, as it's difficult to reopen the strait militarily or impose an effective economic blockade. Efforts to escalate the conflict or establish a limited international naval force seem largely ineffective. On Iran's side, although it maintains its stance that the Strait of Hormuz is a bargaining tool, the crisis damages its economy by significantly reducing its oil revenues. Meanwhile, threats from Iran's missile and drone capabilities persist, pushing the agreement to the verge of collapse.
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