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The votes of Arab Americans could affect the midterm election results despite their estimated 3.7 million population, because they are concentrated in closely contested states and districts, particularly Michigan. Their influence is likely to be more pronounced in House and local elections. One poll found that 59% intend to vote for Democratic candidates, compared with 26% for Republicans; 82% said the high cost of living was weighing on them, and 90% said Middle East crises would affect their vote. Analysts say the war in Gaza and policy toward the region, along with the economy, immigration, and discrimination, are important motivators. However, expected shifts in voting are likely to remain limited and concentrated in districts with large Arab and Muslim communities.
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