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Fitch Agency has forecasted that oil production in the United Arab Emirates will return to pre-war levels, and that the global oil market will begin to see a supply surplus starting from September 2026. The agency also anticipates that Brent prices will decrease to around $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Additionally, it noted that the recovery of Middle Eastern supplies and increasing inventories enhance the likelihood of prices declining, despite the expected average Brent price in 2026 being $87 per barrel. The agency also confirmed that the shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz during its temporary reopening in June are sufficient to compensate for two months of any potential closure of the strait.
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