Syria and Russia: Shift in Influence
The Syrian-Russian memorandum of understanding regarding the Hmeimim Base and Tartus port has marked a shift in the nature of Russian presence in Syria. It has transitioned from a direct military footing to a conditional presence under Damascus's control, accompanied by changes in the management of ports and airports. The article emphasizes that Russia relies strategically on Syria to access the Mediterranean and to carry out operations in Africa. Meanwhile, Damascus has gained greater ability to determine the extent and forms of Russia’s presence through more flexible negotiations. The future of Russian influence depends on Syria’s capacity to build a cohesive state, reduce economic dependency, integrate societal components, and succeed in reconstruction efforts—especially with Arab and Gulf support, such as from the UAE—in transforming economic zones into tools for stability and comprehensive development, rather than merely replacing military dominance with economic or social influence.
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