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Estimates indicate a decrease in the chances of direct military escalation with Iran at the moment, with a focus on economic and political pressure rather than a new military campaign, following a series of American-Israeli meetings. The Trump administration announced the harshest sanctions in history targeting Iran, aiming to buy time and increase pressure, especially with the upcoming November Congressional elections. Meanwhile, Iran has heightened its warning levels and threatened to use advanced weapons if a new war erupts, reflecting a state of "mutual calm" characterized by ongoing military preparations and reciprocal episodes of escalation between the two sides.
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