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The results of Israel’s Knesset election, held on October 27 with turnout at 77.9%, showed Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc in the lead with 53 seats, compared with 48 for the opposition bloc and 19 for the Arab parties. No side, however, reached the 61-seat threshold needed to form a government. The outcome leaves Netanyahu as the leader of the largest bloc but unable to govern, while President Isaac Herzog awaits the start of consultations on November 4, amid the possibility of a minority government, a national unity government, or a new election. The article expects a low-intensity war of attrition in Gaza and limited strikes in Lebanon and Syria to continue, with a regional agreement and de-escalation postponed rather than abandoned.
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