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U.S. Treasury Sees Oil at $40 Post Iran Conflict
The article discusses US Treasury Secretary Scott Bissent's expectations that oil prices could drop to $40 per barrel following the end of the conflict with Iran, due to a significant surplus in the oil market. This may also lead to a decline in bond yields. He pointed out that oil prices were trading above $95 for Brent before the recent escalation, and concerns about inflation increased as energy prices rose, resulting in higher benchmark bond yields. Additionally, the minister downplays the importance of the Norwegian sovereign fund’s proposal to reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds, considering that this would boost investor demand for other debt instruments such as "Fannie Mae" and "Freddie Mac." This comes amidst a substantial US borrowing environment, with the federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, and expectations of falling oil prices following the conclusion of the Iran conflict.
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