Al-Konseptsia: Why Israel's assumptions failed on October 7
Analyses indicate that Israel's failure to prevent Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, was not merely an intelligence failure but rooted in a fixed security concept known as "the Conception." This concept relies on stable and comfortable assumptions despite signs suggesting otherwise. Israel believed that Hamas could be deterred and contained through force and economic incentives, and that the greater threat emanated from Hezbollah and Iran. As a result, focus was placed on the northern front, and Gaza's strategic importance was downplayed. This led to a policy aimed at maintaining calm in the Gaza Strip and abandoning strategies for radical change, in order to divide the Palestinian arena and reduce diplomatic pressures. Such an approach contributed to the strategic surprise of Hamas's attack. Despite the collapse of this worldview, Israeli institutional positions still adhere to these concepts, which could lead to similar mistakes being repeated in the future.
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