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Ethiopia has received the first delivery under a Russian arms deal that includes 12 Su-35 fighter jets. It is also expected to receive four S-400 air-defense batteries—a move Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed described as strengthening deterrence. Experts say the deal could shift the balance of power in the Horn of Africa and intensify the arms race, amid tensions with Eritrea and Addis Ababa’s ambition to secure access to the sea. Possible scenarios include using the weapons to strengthen the defense of key facilities, waging a conflict to gain control of a seaport, or prompting countries in the region to bolster their capabilities and establish mutual deterrence. Experts warn that the resulting instability could escalate into a regional confrontation.
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